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Why lumber prices are rising, and where they are not

By Simon Lafortune, Co-founder, Buildsavr · September 19, 2026

Every few months someone posts a photo of a receipt and the comments fill up with the same line: lumber is out of control again. Sometimes that is true where they are standing. Often it is not true two provinces over, and the number that settles it is public.

Statistics Canada publishes a building construction price index by province, broken out by division. The wood, plastics and composites division is the closest thing there is to an official answer on lumber. As of the second quarter of 2026, it says something more useful than "prices are up."

118.8
Quebec wood index, 2017 = 100
97.4
Ontario wood index, below its 2017 base
21.4 pts
spread between the highest and lowest province

Lumber is not moving the same way across the country

The index is set to 100 in 2017. A province at 118.8 is paying about 19 percent more than it did that year for the wood, plastics and composites side of a residential build. A province at 97.4 is paying slightly less than it did in 2017, after nine years.

Both of those are real numbers from the same quarter. Quebec is the first one. Ontario is the second.

**The practical version:** a national headline about lumber prices is almost always wrong for somebody. Before you accept that wood is expensive right now, check whether it is expensive where you are building.

Three provinces are going in the opposite direction

Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan all had a wood index that was flat or falling year over year in Q2 2026. Ontario and Manitoba are the two clearest: down 2.5 and 3.8 percent respectively, with Ontario sitting below where it was in 2017.

At the other end, Newfoundland and Labrador rose 10.1 percent in a year, the steepest move in the country, off a fairly modest index of 107.5. Quebec is the highest level at 118.8 and still climbing 5 percent a year.

So "lumber is rising" and "lumber is falling" were both accurate statements in Canada in the same quarter, depending on which side of the Ottawa River you were standing on.

What actually moves the number

Lumber is a commodity with a long, slow supply chain and short, fast demand swings. A few things do most of the work.

  • Sawmill capacity. Mills take years to open and weeks to curtail. When they cut shifts, supply drops long before it comes back.
  • Housing starts. Framing demand is the single biggest pull on dimensional lumber, and starts move by region, not nationally.
  • Trade policy. Softwood lumber duties between Canada and the US change what crosses the border and what stays home.
  • Freight. Lumber is bulky and low value per truckload, so distance from the mill shows up in the shelf price more than it does for most materials.
  • Weather and fire seasons. A bad fire year or a wet harvest takes wood off the market for a season or more.
  • Retail competition. Two yards in the same town can be 15 percent apart on the same SKU, and that has nothing to do with the commodity.

The part you can actually control

You cannot do anything about sawmill capacity or duties. You can do something about the last line on that list, and it is usually worth more than people expect.

The index measures what a build costs on average in a province. It does not measure what YOU paid, because it has no idea which store you walked into. Two retailers a few kilometres apart carry the same 2x6x12 at different prices, run different promotions on different weeks, and are rarely cheapest on everything at once.

**That gap is not small.** It is also the only part of the lumber price you get a vote on, which is why it is worth checking every time a list is worth more than a few hundred dollars.

How to buy against a moving price

If the index in your province is climbing, the answer is not to panic-buy a season of lumber. It is to stop paying the first price you see.

  • Price the whole list, not one item. One store is cheap on framing and expensive on sheathing. The savings live in the mix.
  • Buy in build order, not all at once. Wood on site is wood that warps, walks, or gets rained on.
  • Watch the unit, not the sticker. A 96 inch stud and an 8 foot stud are not always priced the same way.
  • Do not drive across town for two dollars. Compare, then decide whether the gap is worth the trip. Often it is not.
  • Check the treated premium separately. Pressure treated moves on its own cycle and is frequently the biggest line on a deck.

Where Buildsavr fits

Buildsavr compares the price of your materials across every retailer we cover and returns a buying plan: line by line, which store is cheapest, your total, and what you save versus buying everything in one place. You give it your list however you have it, typed, a photo, an Excel sheet, a PDF, or just by chatting.

It is live in Quebec today, across Home Depot, Rona, Canac, BMR, Patrick Morin, Home Hardware and more. Everywhere else in Canada is a waitlist, and we open provinces in the order people ask for them.

If you want the provincial numbers on their own, without the product, they are on our Canada pages, one per province and territory, refreshed every quarter from the same Statistics Canada table this post uses.

Frequently asked questions

Are lumber prices going up in Canada right now?
It depends on the province. In Q2 2026, Statistics Canada had the wood, plastics and composites index up 5.0 percent year over year in Quebec and 10.1 percent in Newfoundland and Labrador, but down 2.5 percent in Ontario and down 3.8 percent in Manitoba. Ontario is currently below its 2017 base. There is no single national answer.
Which province has the most expensive lumber?
By index level in Q2 2026, Quebec is highest at 118.8 (2017 = 100), followed by Nova Scotia at 117.1 and Alberta at 116.1. Ontario is lowest at 97.4. The index measures the change since 2017 in that province, not the absolute dollar price, so a high index means prices have climbed the most there.
Why is lumber more expensive in one store than another?
Retail pricing is set by the banner, not the commodity. Two stores a few kilometres apart buy on different contracts, run promotions on different weeks, and price to different local competition. Gaps of 10 to 15 percent on the same item are common, which is why pricing a full list across retailers usually saves more than timing the market.
Should I buy lumber now or wait for prices to drop?
Timing a commodity is a bet, and lumber stored badly loses more than it saves. The reliable move is to buy in build order and price each list across every retailer near you when you actually need the material, rather than buying a season ahead on a forecast.
Where do these numbers come from?
Statistics Canada table 18-10-0289, the building construction price index by type of building and division, wood, plastics and composites for residential construction. It is quarterly and public. The figures in this post are the Q2 2026 reference quarter and are frozen at publication.

Stop paying the first lumber price you see

Buildsavr compares every retailer we cover and builds your cheapest buying plan in about 30 seconds. Live in Quebec, rolling out across Canada. Free to compare, no credit card.